Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States. Issue 13 (12th July 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mason, Shelby A.; Hamlington, Peter E.; Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Matt Jolly, W.; Hoffman, Chad M.
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 44:Issue 13(2017)
• Page Start: 7002
• Page End: 7010
• Publication Date: 2017-07-12
• Subjects: wildland fires -- climate oscillations -- El Niño; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074111
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early summer, wildland fire potential is reduced in the southwest during El Niño but is increased in the northwest, with opposite trends for La Niña. In late summer, El Niño is associated with increased wildland fire potential in the southwest. Relative to the mean, the largest impacts of ENSO are observed in the northwest and southeast. Climate impacts on fire potential due to ENSO are found to be most closely associated with variations in relative humidity. The connections established here between fire potential and climate oscillations could result in improved wildland fire risk assessment and resource allocation. Key Points: Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions are used to analyze the effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential The modulated annual cycle is primarily associated with variations in wildland fire potential in the western U.S. and Florida Effects of El Niño and La Niña are widespread, with the largest changes relative to the mean occurring in the northwest and southeast