Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction. Issue 1 (17th May 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Joffe, Helene; Rossetto, Tiziana; Bradley, Caroline; O'Connor, Cliodhna
• Is Part Of: Disasters. Volume 42:Issue 1(2018:Jan.)
• Page Start: 81
• Page End: 100
• Publication Date: 2017-05-17
• Subjects: boundary work -- earthquake prediction -- social representations -- stigma in science; Disasters -- Periodicals; Disaster relief -- Periodicals; Emergency management -- Periodicals; 363.34
• DOI: 10.1111/disa.12237
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0361-3666

Abstract

Abstract : This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake 'prediction' in favour of 'forecasting'. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty.