Website link prediction using a Markov chain model based on multiple time periods. (17th January 2007)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Jayalal, Shantha; Hawksley, Chris; Brereton, Pearl
• Is Part Of: International journal of Web engineering and technology. Volume 3:Number 3(2007)
• Page Start: 271
• Page End: 287
• Publication Date: 2007-01-17
• Subjects: websites -- link prediction -- Markov chains -- transition probability matrix -- time weighting -- link history -- web engineering; World Wide Web -- Periodicals; Web site development -- Periodicals; Application software -- Development -- Periodicals; 006.7
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1476-1289

Abstract

Growing size and complexity of many websites have made navigation through these sites increasingly difficult. Attempting to automatically predict the next page for a website user to visit has many potential benefits, for example in site navigation, automatic tour generation, adaptive web applications, recommendation systems, web server optimisation, web search and web pre-fetching. This paper describes an approach to link prediction using a Markov chain model based on an exponentially smoothed transition probability matrix which incorporates site usage statistics collected over multiple time periods. The improved performance of this approach compared to earlier methods is also discussed.