Estimating a passenger vehicle's SNCAP star rating probability distribution. (26th February 2007)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Deng, Bing; Wang, J.T.; Beltramo, Mark A.
• Is Part Of: International journal of vehicle safety. Volume 2:Number 1/2(2007)
• Page Start: 57
• Page End: 67
• Publication Date: 2007-02-26
• Subjects: vehicle crash safety -- SNCAP performance -- star rating -- statistical models -- vehicle safety -- side impact -- side air bags -- crash testing -- restraint systems -- vehicle design -- probability distribution -- concept vehicles; Automobiles -- Design and construction -- Periodicals; Automobiles -- Safety measures -- Periodicals; 629.222028905
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1479-3105

Abstract

This paper presents a statistical method to predict Side-Impact New Car Assessment Programme (SNCAP) star ratings at early stages of the vehicle development process when only limited vehicle information, such as basic dimensions and restraint choices, is available. The heart of this method is a probabilistic model, in which the probability distribution of SNCAP star ratings, conditional on vehicle characteristics, is estimated using residual analysis. A total of 80 SNCAP tests from model year 1999 to model year 2002 were collected from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) public database and used for the analysis. Given a vehicle's basic dimensions and the choice of side air bags, the estimated probabilities reflect variations among similar existing vehicles due to detailed vehicle structure design, interior geometry layout, restraint system design and the inherent variability of hardware and crash testing. The statistical method developed in this study provides a fast, probabilistic assessment of a concept vehicle's potential SNCAP performance.