A case of forecast-based technology evaluation and its implications. (25th January 2011)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kim, Byoung Soo
• Is Part Of: International journal of technology intelligence and planning. Volume 6:Number 4(2010)
• Page Start: 317
• Page End: 325
• Publication Date: 2011-01-25
• Subjects: technology evaluation -- foresight -- forecasts -- forecasting -- catch-up strategies -- science -- innovation -- government policies -- emerging countries -- South Korea -- KISTEP -- Delphi surveys -- data analysis -- patents -- growth curves -- technological change -- R&amp -- amp -- D -- research and development -- decision making -- near future -- technology-level perspectives -- technology intelligence -- technology planning; Technological innovations -- Periodicals; Research, Industrial -- Periodicals; Knowledge management -- Periodicals; 658.403805
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1740-2832

Abstract

As the importance of a national catch-up strategy, science and innovation policy, and forecasting the future is emphasised, a more advanced method of technology evaluation is needed for the emerging countries including South Korea. The methodology of forecast-based technology evaluation introduced by KISTEP consists of the Delphi survey, data analysis of papers and patents, technology growth curve fitting, and so on. Each nation's technological changes can be compared by using technology growth curves fitted from the data of the Delphi survey. With these results, R&D decision-makers can forecast the near future from a technology-level perspective.