Decomposition and forecasting analysis of China's energy efficiency: An application of three-dimensional decomposition and small-sample hybrid models. (September 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Meng, Ming; Shang, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Niu, Dongxiao; Li, Wei
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 89(2015)
• Page Start: 283
• Page End: 293
• Publication Date: 2015-09
• Subjects: Energy efficiency -- China -- Decomposition -- Forecasting; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.05.132
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: The coordinated actions of the central and the provincial governments are important in improving China's energy efficiency. This paper uses a three-dimensional decomposition model to measure the contribution of each province in improving the country's energy efficiency and a small-sample hybrid model to forecast this contribution. Empirical analysis draws the following conclusions which are useful for the central government to adjust its provincial energy-related policies. (a) There are two important areas for the Chinese government to improve its energy efficiency: adjusting the provincial economic structure and controlling the number of the small-scale private industrial enterprises; (b) Except for a few outliers, the energy efficiency growth rates of the northern provinces are higher than those of the southern provinces; provinces with high growth rates tend to converge geographically; (c) With regard to the energy sustainable development level, Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangxi, and Shaanxi are the best performers and Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Shanghai, and Guizhou are the worst performers; (d) By 2020, China's energy efficiency may reach 24.75 thousand yuan per ton of standard coal; as well as (e) Three development scenarios are designed to forecast China's energy consumption in 2012–2020. Highlights: Decomposition and forecasting models are used to analyze China's energy efficiency. China should focus on the small industrial enterprises and local protectionism. The energy sustainable development level of each province is evaluated. Geographic distribution characteristics of energy efficiency changes are revealed. Future energy efficiency and energy consumption are forecasted.