Chance discovery and scenario analysis for trend exploration on solar cell technology. (27th December 2010)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Chiu, Tzu-Fu
• Is Part Of: International journal of intelligent information and database systems. Volume 5:Number 1(2011)
• Page Start: 81
• Page End: 100
• Publication Date: 2010-12-27
• Subjects: trend exploration -- scenario analysis -- chance discovery -- solar cells -- patent data -- patents -- knowledge extraction -- knowledge retrieval -- technology trends; Database management -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Information retrieval -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Information storage and retrieval systems -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Artificial intelligence -- Periodicals; Expert systems (Computer science) -- Periodicals; Intelligent agents (Computer software) -- Periodicals; 006.33
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1751-5858

Abstract

It is essential for managers and stakeholders to well understand the trends of a certain technology so that managers can enhance the performance of a company and stakeholders can make appropriate decisions for investment. Solar cell, one of renewable energies, is growing at a fast pace with its unexhausted and non-polluted natures. Meanwhile, the patent data contains plentiful technical information from which is worth exploring to extract further knowledge. Therefore, an integrated approach of chance discovery and scenario analysis has been proposed so as to analyse the patent data, to form the scenarios and to explore the trends of solar cell technology. Finally, the technical topics of solar cell have been realised, the relation patterns between topics have been identified, the scenarios and trends of each topic have been revealed and the tendency of overall situation have also been observed.