Long-run projections of environmental impact in the OECD: the importance of uncertainty and age structure. (1st January 2011)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Liddle, Brantley
• Is Part Of: International journal of global environmental issues. Volume 11:Number 3/4(2011)
• Page Start: 200
• Page End: 217
• Publication Date: 2011-01-01
• Subjects: STIRPAT -- stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology -- demography and environmental impact -- age structure and environment -- population and sustainable development -- IPAT -- impact equals population times affluence times technology -- greenhouse gas emissions projections -- uncertainty and projections -- sensitivity analysis -- factorial experimental designs; Global environmental change -- Periodicals; Environmental protection -- Periodicals; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; 363.70526
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1466-6650

Abstract

This paper considers the influence of uncertainty with respect to GDP and population – total and age structure – on long-run environmental impact projections. A simple model, based on the stochastic version of the IPAT equation, is used to generate projections of two environmental impacts for which population has a demonstrated influence – carbon emissions from transport and residential electricity consumption. The paper examines the sensitivity of those long-run projections to uncertainty regarding possible future GDP and population growth/change. The following are demonstrated: 1 if the medium path for either population or GDP is to be believed/trusted, then uncertainty with respect to the growth/change of the other factor is unimportant 2 uncertainty with respect to population projections has a greater effect on environmental impact projections than does uncertainty with respect to GDP projections – despite that the degree of uncertainty associated with population is smaller than the uncertainty associated with aggregate economic growth.