Plausibility indications in future scenarios. (1st January 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wiek, Arnim; Withycombe Keeler, Lauren; Schweizer, Vanessa; Lang, Daniel J.
• Is Part Of: International journal of foresight and innovation policy. Volume 9:Number 2/3/4(2013)
• Page Start: 133
• Page End: 147
• Publication Date: 2013-01-01
• Subjects: plausibility -- future studies -- scenarios -- sustainability -- anticipatory knowledge -- foresight -- scenario assessment -- probability; Knowledge management -- Periodicals; Strategic planning -- Decision making -- Periodicals; 658.401
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1740-2816

Abstract

Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-à-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered 'occurrable'. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike.