(Im)Plausibility2. (1st January 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Nordmann, Alfred
• Is Part Of: International journal of foresight and innovation policy. Volume 9:Number 2/3/4(2013)
• Page Start: 125
• Page End: 132
• Publication Date: 2013-01-01
• Subjects: plausibility -- technology assessment -- anticipation -- futures -- scenario methods; Knowledge management -- Periodicals; Strategic planning -- Decision making -- Periodicals; 658.401
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1740-2816

Abstract

The paper offers a general conceptual analysis of 'plausibility' that illustrates the difficulties of assigning meaning and of operationalising the term in respect to any given real or imagined world. It goes on to show how the problem is compounded for 'plausibility 2 ' or 'plausibility squared', that is, for judgments of what is plausible in an imagined world that is more or less plausibly assumed to be the successor to a given world – as would be the case for any scenario of the future. In conclusion, some implications for innovation studies and technology assessment will be suggested.