Local ensemble transform Kalman filter for ionospheric data assimilation: Observation influence analysis during a geomagnetic storm event. Issue 9 (18th September 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Durazo, Juan A.; Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 122:Issue 9(2017)
• Page Start: 9652
• Page End: 9669
• Publication Date: 2017-09-18
• Subjects: data assimilation -- Kalman filter -- targeted observations -- TIEGCM -- geomagnetic storm; Magnetospheric physics -- Periodicals; Space environment -- Periodicals; Cosmic physics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Atmospheres -- Periodicals; Heliosphere (Astrophysics) -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 523.01
• DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024274
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-9380

Abstract

Abstract: We propose a targeted observation strategy, based on the influence matrix diagnostic, that optimally selects where additional observations may be placed to improve ionospheric forecasts. This strategy is applied in data assimilation observing system experiments, where synthetic electron density vertical profiles, which represent those of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate/Formosa satellite 3, are assimilated into the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter during the 26 September 2011 geomagnetic storm. During each analysis step, the observation vector is augmented with five synthetic vertical profiles optimally placed to target electron density errors, using our targeted observation strategy. Forecast improvement due to assimilation of augmented vertical profiles is measured with the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of analyzed electron density, averaged over 600 km regions centered around the augmented vertical profile locations. Assimilating vertical profiles with targeted locations yields about 60%–80% reduction in electron density RMSE, compared to a 15% average reduction when assimilating randomly placed vertical profiles. Assimilating vertical profiles whose locations target the zonal component of neutral winds (U n ) yields on average a 25% RMSE reduction inU n estimates, compared to a 2% average improvement obtained with randomly placed vertical profiles. These results demonstrate that our targeted strategy can improve data assimilation efforts during extreme events by detecting regions where additional observations would provide the largest benefit to the forecast. Key Points: Ionospheric data assimilation system is developed with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter Targeted observation strategy based on the influence matrix diagnostic is proposed for the LETKF Assimilation of targeted observations reduces forecast errors during geomagnetic storm event