Modelling emission trends from non-constant time series of PM10 concentrations in Christchurch, New Zealand. (17th November 2010)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Appelhans, Tim; Sturman, Andrew; Zawar-Reza, Peyman
• Is Part Of: International journal of environment and pollution. Volume 43:Number 4(2010)
• Page Start: 354
• Page End: 363
• Publication Date: 2010-11-17
• Subjects: particulate matter -- PM10 -- air pollution meteorology -- multiple linear regression -- New Zealand -- air quality -- time series analysis -- pollutant emissions -- home heating; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental engineering -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Pollution -- Periodicals; 363.73
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0957-4352

Abstract

This paper presents an attempt to model the trend of emissions through analysis of a time series of PPM10 concentrations in Christchurch, New Zealand. Emissions are not constant over time, but show high seasonality. Fluctuations are removed by creating a time series in which concentrations do not show dependency on ambient air temperature. Remaining meteorological influences are removed through multiple linear regression. Finally, a moving average filter is applied to reveal the low-frequency trend in the residuals of the meteorologically adjusted time series. The modelled trend shows a peak in emissions in 2001-2002 with a steady decrease thereafter.