Scotland׳s hydropower: Current capacity, future potential and the possible impacts of climate change. (December 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sample, James E.; Duncan, Niall; Ferguson, Michael; Cooksley, Susan
• Is Part Of: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. Volume 52(2015:Dec.)
• Page Start: 111
• Page End: 122
• Publication Date: 2015-12
• Subjects: BFI Base Flow Index -- DECC Department of Energy and Climate Change -- FDC Flow Duration Curve -- FIT Feed-in Tariff -- GIS Geographic Information System -- NPV Net Present Value -- NSHEB North of Scotland Hydroelectric Board -- OS Ordnance Survey -- RoR Run-of-River -- ROC Renewables Obligation Certificate -- SAAR Standard Average Annual Rainfall -- SEPA Scottish Environmental Protection Agency -- SNH Scottish Natural Heritage -- UKCP09 UK Climate Projections, 2009 -- WFD Water Framework Directive -- WG Weather Generator; Scotland -- Hydropower -- Climate change -- Renewable energy -- Resource assessment; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Énergies renouvelables -- Périodiques; Ressources énergétiques -- Périodiques; 333.794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.071
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-0321

Abstract

Abstract: To promote the transition towards a low carbon economy, the Scottish Government has adopted ambitious energy-related targets, including generating all electricity from renewable sources by 2020. To achieve this, continued investment will be required across a range of sustainable technologies. Hydropower has a long history in Scotland and the present-day operational capacity of ~1.5 GW already makes a substantial contribution to the national energy budget. In addition, there remains potential for ~500 MW of further development, mostly in the form of small to medium size run-of-river schemes. Climate change is expected to lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, leading to changes in both the magnitude and seasonality of river flows. There may also be indirect effects on water flows, such as changing land use, enhanced evapotranspiration rates and an increased demand for irrigation, all of which could affect the water available for energy generation. In this paper we describe Scotland׳s currently installed hydropower capacity and present a review of the scope for future development. We also review the potential impacts of climate change, highlighting possible adaptation measures as well as key factors likely to determine financial viability over the coming decades. We present a summary of the present state of knowledge regarding the resilience of Scotland׳s hydropower resource to a changing climate, and identify key areas where further research is required.