Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?. (18th May 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash; Sousa, Ricardo M.
• Is Part Of: Journal of forecasting. Volume 37:Number 6(2018)
• Page Start: 650
• Page End: 665
• Publication Date: 2018-05-18
• Subjects: asymmetry -- bias -- budget balance -- efficiency -- forecast comparison -- information rigidity; Forecasting -- Periodicals; Forecasting -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 003.2
• DOI: 10.1002/for.2527
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0277-6693

Abstract

Abstract: We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO forecasts are not significantly less accurate than Consensus forecasts; (ii) WEO and Consensus forecasts tend to mutually encompass one another; and (iii) each source of forecasts appears to contain some information that is not embedded in the other source.