An Empirical Model of Issue Evolution and Partisan Realignment in a Multiparty System. (March 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Arndt, Christoph
• Is Part Of: Political research quarterly. Volume 71:Number 1(2018:Mar.)
• Page Start: 59
• Page End: 74
• Publication Date: 2018-03
• Subjects: issue evolution -- realignment -- immigration -- multiparty system -- elite polarization -- issue salience; Political science -- Periodicals; Science politique -- Périodiques; 320
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912917722234
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1065-9129

Abstract

Since Carmines and Stimson's seminal work, the concept of issue evolution has become a common theoretical toolkit to examine and explain polarization around cultural issues and partisan realignment in the United States. However, very few studies outside the United States have applied the concept of issue evolution to explain electoral change and realignment around new issues at national elections over time. Analyzing whether and how Carmines and Stimson's concept travels to electoral change in a multiparty system would provide more theoretical leverage and create empirical knowledge on the logic of issue evolution outside the United States and also whether the logic of electoral change differs from U.S.-style two-party systems. This article applies the issue evolution concept to a multidimensional multiparty system using micro-level data from 1971 to 2011 in combination with data on elite-level polarization to demonstrate that partisan realignment in Denmark follows an issue evolution process with niche parties as main drivers. Moreover, niche party polarization on the new dimension of conflict has a stronger effect on vote choice than mainstream party polarization.