GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Reanalysis. (October 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Korotayev, Andrey; Bilyuga, Stanislav; Shishkina, Alisa
• Is Part Of: Cross-cultural research. Volume 52:Number 4(2018:Nov.)
• Page Start: 406
• Page End: 440
• Publication Date: 2018-10
• Subjects: GDP per capita -- sociopolitical destabilization -- autocracy -- democracy -- intermediate political regimes -- democratization -- political development -- economic development -- antigovernment demonstrations -- education -- middle-income trap; Social sciences -- Periodicals; 300.72
• DOI: 10.1177/1069397117732328
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1069-3971

Abstract

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is not characterized by a straightforward negative correlation; it rather has an inverted U-shape. The highest risks are typical for the countries with intermediate values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, economic growth predicts an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization. This positive correlation is particularly strong ( r = .94, R 2 = .88) and significant for the intensity of antigovernment demonstrations. This correlation can be observed in a very wide interval (up to 20, 000 of international 2014 dollars at purchasing power parities [PPPs]). We suggest that it is partially accounted for by the following regularities: (a) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes strengthens the pro-democracy movements, and, consequently, intensifies antigovernment demonstrations; (b) in the GDP per capita interval from the minimum to $20, 000, the growth of GDP per capita correlates quite strongly with a declining proportion of authoritarian regimes and a growing proportion of intermediate and democratic regimes; and, finally, (c) GDP growth in the given diapason increases the level of education of the population, which, in turn, leads to a higher intensity of antigovernment demonstrations.