Assessing inference of the basic reproduction number in an SIR model incorporating a growth‐scaling parameter. (16th August 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ganyani, Tapiwa; Faes, Christel; Chowell, Gerardo; Hens, Niel
• Is Part Of: Statistics in medicine. Volume 37:Number 29(2018)
• Page Start: 4490
• Page End: 4506
• Publication Date: 2018-08-16
• Subjects: basic reproduction number -- discrete time stochastic SIR model -- early epidemic growth phase -- epidemic modeling -- mass action principle; Medical statistics -- Periodicals; Statistique médicale -- Périodiques; Statistiques médicales -- Périodiques; 610.727
• DOI: 10.1002/sim.7935
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0277-6715

Abstract

Abstract : The standard mass action, which assumes that infectious disease transmission occurs in well‐mixed populations, is popular for formulating compartmental epidemic models. Compartmental epidemic models often follow standard mass action for simplicity and to gain insight into transmission dynamics as it often performs well at reproducing disease dynamics in large populations. In this work, we formulate discrete time stochastic susceptible‐infected‐removed models with linear (standard) and nonlinear mass action structures to mimic varying mixing levels. Using simulations and real epidemic data, we demonstrate the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number to these mathematical structures of the force of infection. Our results suggest the need to consider nonlinear mass action in order to generate more accurate estimates of the basic reproduction number although its uncertainty increases due to the addition of one growth scaling parameter.