A parameter estimation method for machine tool reliability analysis using expert judgement. (5th April 2010)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lad, Bhupesh Kumar; Kulkarni, Makarand S.
• Is Part Of: International journal of data analysis techniques and strategies. Volume 2:Number 2(2010)
• Page Start: 155
• Page End: 169
• Publication Date: 2010-04-05
• Subjects: reliability analysis -- data analysis -- parameter estimation -- expert judgement -- preventive maintenance -- restoration factor -- machine tool reliability; Electronic data processing -- Periodicals; Database searching -- Periodicals; 005
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1755-8050

Abstract

This paper aims at providing a parameter estimation method for the machine tool reliability analysis to overcome the problem of unavailability of a well-defined failure data collection mechanism. It uses the knowledge and experience of maintenance personnel to obtain the parameters of lifetime distribution of the repairable as well as non-repairable components/subassemblies. It is further developed for the cases where the knowledge available with the expert is with reference to the preventive repair/replacement policy used in the field. In case of imperfect repairs, the methodology also helps in estimating the value of restoration factor. The goodness of the proposed methodology at a given accuracy level in expert judgements are tested against the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. It is concluded that the expert judgement method provides a satisfactory alternative to statistical methods when no or very few historical time to failure data points are available.