Chaos theory: forecasting the freight rate of an oil tanker. (9th November 2009)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Thalassinos, Eleftherios I.; Hanias, Mike P.; Curtis, Panayiotis G.; Thalassinos, Yannis E.
• Is Part Of: International journal of computational economics and econometrics. Volume 1:Number 1(2009)
• Page Start: 76
• Page End: 88
• Publication Date: 2009-11-09
• Subjects: chaos theory -- strange attractors -- shipping indices prediction -- freight rates -- oil tankers -- Aframax tanker charter rate index -- false nearest neighbours -- FNN; Econometrics -- Periodicals; Economics -- Data processing -- Periodicals; 330.01519505
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1757-1170

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to predict the Aframax tanker charter rate index by using methods from non-linear analysis especially from chaos theory as is the method of false nearest neighbours (FNN). This is the result of the new emerging field of econo-physics which mainly consists of autonomous physico-mathematical models that have been already applied to the financial markets and now in particular aspects of the complex non-linear dynamics of several maritime indices such as the time charter rate of an Aframax tanker.