Prospective utility and time-varying optimal asset allocation for the UK: 1803-1995. (27th July 2009)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: McManus, Ian; Ap Gwilym, Owain; Thomas, Stephen
• Is Part Of: International journal of behavioural accounting and finance. Volume 1:Number 2(2009)
• Page Start: 95
• Page End: 110
• Publication Date: 2009-07-27
• Subjects: prospective utility -- asset allocation -- equity risk premium -- behavioural finance -- UK -- United Kingdom -- myopic loss aversion -- time variation -- returns distributions -- investment evaluation -- equities -- bonds; Accounting -- Psychological aspects -- Periodicals; Business enterprises -- Finance -- Psychological aspects -- Periodicals; Investments -- Psychological aspects -- Periodicals; Organizational behavior -- Periodicals; 657.019
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1753-1969

Abstract

The equity risk premium has attracted considerable debate and various proposed explanations. We re-examine one approach based on myopic loss aversion, while incorporating time variation in returns distributions. We identify optimal asset allocations across a two-century period for the UK, in the context of a range of plausible investment evaluation periods. We demonstrate that both the frequency of evaluation which achieves indifference between equities and bonds, and the optimal asset allocation profile, vary significantly over time. Although equities dominate for long periods, it is evident that periods of low inflation lead to the prominence of bonds in optimal allocations.