Is the Number of Citizens Fatally Shot by Police Increasing in the Post-Ferguson Era?. (March 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Campbell, Bradley A.; Nix, Justin; Maguire, Edward R.
• Is Part Of: Crime and delinquency. Volume 64:Number 3(2018)
• Page Start: 398
• Page End: 420
• Publication Date: 2018-03
• Subjects: Ferguson Effect -- police shootings -- police use of force -- interrupted time-series analysis; Crime -- United States -- Periodicals; Juvenile delinquency -- United States -- Periodicals; 364.05
• DOI: 10.1177/0011128716686343
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0011-1287

Abstract

This study examines whether the number of citizens fatally shot by police in the United States has changed significantly since the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. Using longitudinal data compiled bykilledbypolice.net, we use an interrupted time-series design to test the effect of events in Ferguson on fatal shootings by police. Our analyses reveal that the number of citizens killed by police is temporally unstable, exhibiting random short-term fluctuations that are often misinterpreted as evidence of substantively meaningful trends. However, after testing a variety of model specifications, we find no evidence that the number of fatal police shootings either increased or decreased post-Ferguson. Claims to the contrary are based on weak analyses of short-term trends.