Sharp probability inequalities for reliable evacuation planning. (November 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ng, ManWo; Lin, Dung-Ying
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 60(2015)
• Page Start: 161
• Page End: 168
• Publication Date: 2015-11
• Subjects: Evacuation -- Emergency -- Uncertainty -- Reliability -- Probability; Transportation -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Technological innovations -- Periodicals; 388.011
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2015.08.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0968-090X

Abstract

Highlights: New methods for reliable evacuation planning. Only first and second moments of random factors are required. Probability inequalities are shown to be sharp. Symmetry assumption formally shown to reduce evacuation time. Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature by providing new techniques to determine optimal evacuation routes when limited information is known about the evacuation demand and road capacities. Specifically, this research complements prior work by requiring only their first and second moments to be known. The inclusion of an optional symmetry assumption is rigorously shown to further reduce the evacuation time. Finally, we demonstrate that the probability inequalities that serve to ensure the confidence level of the evacuation plan are sharp. A case study illustrates the core idea of demand inflation and supply deflation in obtaining reliable evacuation plans.