Linked trends in the South Pacific sea ice edge and Southern Oscillation Index. Issue 19 (9th October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.; Lee, T.; Holland, P. R.
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 43:Issue 19(2016)
• Page Start: 10, 295
• Page End: 10, 302
• Publication Date: 2016-10-09
• Subjects: Antarctic ice edge -- Southern Oscillation; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070655
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: Previous work have shown that sea ice variability in the South Pacific is associated with extratropical atmospheric anomalies linked to the Southern Oscillation (SO). Over a 32 year period (1982–2013), our study shows that the trend in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also able to quantitatively explain the trends in sea ice edge, drift, and surface winds in this region. On average two thirds of the winter ice edge trend in this sector, linked to ice drift and surface winds, could be explained by the positive SOI trend, thus subjecting the ice edge to strong decadal SO variability. If this relationship holds, the negative SOI trend prior to the recent satellite era suggests that ice edge trends opposite to that of the recent record over a similar time scale. Significant low‐frequency ice edge trends, linked to the natural variability of SO, are superimposed upon any trends expected of anthropogenic forcing. Key Points: Skill in predicting the time trend of sea ice edge in the southern Pacific using the Southern Oscillation Index is examined Winter ice edge trends in the Pacific sector are partly associated with wind patterns linked to trend of the Southern Oscillation Index Low‐frequency ice edge trends, linked to the natural variability of Southern Oscillation, are superimposed on anthropogenic forcing