Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications. (August 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce DL
• Is Part Of: Current opinion in plant biology. Volume 32(2016)
• Page Start: 101
• Page End: 109
• Publication Date: 2016-08
• Subjects: Plant molecular biology -- Periodicals; 571.205
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pbi.2016.07.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1369-5266

Abstract

Highlights: Investigations of climate change impacts still concentrate on few crops and pathogens. Climate model ensembles can quantify some uncertainty in crop disease predictions. Uncertainties inherent in crop disease models remain largely unexplored. Cross-discipline collaboration is essential to study interactions between pathogens. Tools are being developed to explore arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. Abstract : Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level.