When Bad News Arrives: Project HOPE in a Post-Factual World. (February 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cullen, Francis T.; Pratt, Travis C.; Turanovic, Jillian J.; Butler, Leah
• Other Names: Paparozzi Mario guest-editor.
• Is Part Of: Journal of contemporary criminal justice. Volume 34:Number 1(2018:Feb.)
• Page Start: 13
• Page End: 34
• Publication Date: 2018-02
• Subjects: deterrence -- offender supervision -- parole -- probation -- Project HOPE; Criminal justice, Administration of -- Periodicals; Criminal justice, Administration of -- United States -- Periodicals; 364.973
• DOI: 10.1177/1043986217750424
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1043-9862

Abstract

On the basis of limited empirical evidence, advocates of Project HOPE (Hawaii's Opportunity Probation with Enforcement) have succeeded in spreading the model to a reported 31 states and 160 locations. A recent randomized control experiment across four sites has revealed negative results: no overall effect on recidivism. In this context, we examine how prominent advocates of Project HOPE have coped with the arrival of this "bad news." Despite null findings from a "gold standard" evaluation study, advocates continue to express confidence in the HOPE model and to support its further implementation. The risk thus exists that Project HOPE is entering a post-factual world in which diminishing its appeal—let alone its falsification—is not possible. It is the collective responsibility of corrections researchers to warn policy makers that the HOPE model is not a proven intervention and may not be effective in many agencies. It is also our responsibility to create a science of community supervision that can establish more definitively best practices in this area.