Planning regional ecosystem sustainability under multiple uncertainties—An interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming approach. (November 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhang, K.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Jin, S.W.
• Is Part Of: Ecological indicators. Volume 70(2016)
• Page Start: 134
• Page End: 150
• Publication Date: 2016-11
• Subjects: Credibility-constrained -- Ecosystem -- Modeling -- Multiple uncertainties -- Planning -- Sustainability; Environmental monitoring -- Periodicals; Environmental management -- Periodicals; Environmental impact analysis -- Periodicals; Environmental risk assessment -- Periodicals; Sustainable development -- Periodicals; 333.71405
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.06.007
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1470-160X

Abstract

Highlights: An interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming (ISCP) method is developed. ISCP method can tack multiple uncertainties in ecosystem sustainability management. ISCP is applied to planning ecosystem sustainable development for Dongying (China). Results show that uncertainty has an important role in planning regional ecosystem. Results help formulate the optimal regional ecosystem sustainability strategies. Abstract: Inherent uncertainties in regional ecosystems can affect the modeling processes and the relevant results for managing and planning the real-world problems. In this study, an interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming (ISCP) method is developed for tacking multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. The ISCP method is applied to planning regional ecosystem sustainability in the City of Dongying (China), in which ecosystem services valuation approach is directly incorporated within the optimization processes. Results associated with credibility levels of resources availability and the effects of sensitive ecological factors on the ecosystem services and ecological benefit are analyzed. Results show that a tighter limitation of ecological resources availability could cause lower economic development, particularly for oil field and oil refinery industries. Tradeoffs among social, economic and natural subsystems are also examined under different credibility levels, which are provided for generating optimal strategies in supporting of balancing the city's economic and ecological sustainable development. Results of sensitivity analysis reveal that runoff coefficient is one of the most sensitive ecological factors in the process of calculating the ecological benefit. The findings can provide scientific bases for the integration of economic and ecological activities as well as the development of regional ecosystem-sustainability strategies.