Comparing and integrating the NUSAP notational scheme with an uncertainty based risk perspective. (December 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Berner, Christine Louise; Flage, Roger
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 156(2016:Dec.)
• Page Start: 185
• Page End: 194
• Publication Date: 2016-12
• Subjects: Extended quantitative risk assessment -- NUSAP -- Uncertainty -- Background knowledge -- Kite/radar diagrams; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Abstract: Efforts to develop approaches to represent uncertainty in risk assessments follow both quantitative and semi-quantitative lines, where semi-quantitative is here to be understood as quantitative representation supplemented with qualitative assessments of aspects not sufficiently and appropriately captured by the produced numbers. The latter type of approach can be referred to as extended quantitative risk assessment and has parallels with the so-called NUSAP notational scheme of uncertainty and quality in science for policy. In the present paper we analyse the parallels that exist between NUSAP and a general description of risk as conceptualised in the recently published Society for Risk Analysis glossary. In addition to obtaining insights at the fundamental level into different approaches to describe risk, an objective is to explore whether aspects from the NUSAP notational scheme can be used within the context of and to improve current methods for extended quantitative risk assessment consistent with the general description of risk. We conclude that there are strong parallels between the two approaches and that particularly the use of visualisation tools in NUSAP can advantageously be utilised in extended quantitative risk assessments. A short example from the oil and gas industry is used to illustrate how this can be done. Highlights: We compare two approaches for extended quantitative uncertainty assessment. Our focus is on the risk assessment setting. One of the approaches has well-developed use of visualisation tools. We demonstrate how these can be adopted in a risk assessment setting. These can be useful to communicate the background knowledge of a risk assessment.