On the fusion of regression and neural network methods. (2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pwasong, Augustine; Sathasivam, Saratha
• Is Part Of: International journal of intelligent systems technologies and applications. Volume 15:Number 3(2016)
• Page Start: 255
• Page End: 280
• Publication Date: 2016
• Subjects: BMA -- Bayesian model averaging -- artificial neural networks -- ANNs -- MAE -- mean absolute error -- root mean square error -- RMSE -- time series forecasting -- OLS regression -- ordinary least squares -- nonlinear -- crude oil production -- Nigeria -- simulation -- Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation -- NNPC; Artificial intelligence -- Periodicals; Intelligent control systems -- Periodicals; 006.3
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1740-8865

Abstract

In this paper, a cascade forward back propagation neural (CFBN) network model and an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model are fused together to form a hybrid model called 'hybrid OLS-CFBN' technique. The hybrid model was applied on the crude oil data of the Nigerian national petroleum corporation (NNPC) to determine the forecasting performance of the model. The fusion was made by the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique, to obtain a combined forecast from the two separate methods, that is, the CFBN and the OLS methods. The fusion produced the hybrid OLS-CFBN model which was used on the difference and log difference series of the NNPC data. The results indicate that the combined forecast have better forecasting performance greater than the standalone methods on the difference series based on the mean square error sense. The analysis for this study was simulated using MATLAB software, version 8.03.