Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data. (November 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Elwell, Clifford A.; Biddulph, Phillip; Lowe, Robert; Oreszczyn, Tadj
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 86(2015)
• Page Start: 770
• Page End: 783
• Publication Date: 2015-11
• Subjects: Energy use -- Bayesian -- Statistics -- Efficiency -- Boiler; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.020
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: This paper presents a novel method to analyse policy performance, using the example of legislation in the UK to require domestic boilers fitted since 1 April 2005 to be condensing. A technological uptake model based on the logistic equation is combined with four physical and economic models; Bayesian techniques are used for data analysis. Projections of energy savings are presented and the impact of different policy implementation dates investigated. Boiler efficiency is estimated to improve by a factor of 1.25±0.15 on replacing a conventional with a condensing boiler. Estimated savings of the policy are 176, 000 − 127, 000 + 86, 000 GW h (or 32 − 23 + 16 MTons of CO2 e ) between introduction in 2005 and 2013. Total estimated savings by 2050 of introducing the legislation in 2005 are 2, 000, 000 − 1, 500, 000 + 1, 000, 000 GW h (or 368 − 276 + 184 MTons of CO2 e ), approximately 5.6 times the average annual domestic UK emissions from domestic gas use of approximately 66±5 MTons of CO2 e . Abstract : Highlights: We investigate the impact of a UK policy to require new boilers to be high efficiency. Theoretically informed models are developed and applied to national data. Bayesian analysis is used to find best fit parameters and compare model performance. The policy is prescriptive and simple to enforce; it improves stock boiler efficiency. Significant energy and carbon savings may be associated with this policy.