Population ageing in healthcare – a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland. Issue 15 (28th March 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Colombier, Carsten
• Is Part Of: Applied economics. Volume 50:Issue 15(2018)
• Page Start: 1746
• Page End: 1760
• Publication Date: 2018-03-28
• Subjects: Healthcare expenditure -- population ageing -- fiscal sustainability -- medical advances -- robust MM estimator -- long-term projections; H51 -- I18 -- C22; Economics -- Periodicals; 330
• DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1374538
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0003-6846

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Our study shows that population ageing is a relevant determinant of healthcare expenditure (HCE). This conclusion supports the popular, but recently strongly contested, view that the coming population ageing will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health systems. We contribute to this debate, first by estimating the determinants of Swiss HCE with outlier-robust dynamic regressions, and second, by projecting Swiss HCE based on the estimates produced and new population scenarios. Medical advances and GDP per capita also play a decisive role. Governments can mitigate HCE growth by improving the health status of the population and by stimulating cost-effective and productive medical advances.