Estimation of wind speed using regional frequency analysis based on linear‐moments. (18th July 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fawad, Muhammad; Ahmad, Ishfaq; Nadeem, Falaq Ali; Yan, Ting; Abbas, Aamar
• Is Part Of: International journal of climatology. Volume 38:Number 12(2018)
• Page Start: 4431
• Page End: 4444
• Publication Date: 2018-07-18
• Subjects: linear‐moments -- Monte Carlo simulation -- quantile estimates -- wind speed; Climatology -- Periodicals; Climat -- Périodiques; Climatologie -- Périodiques; 551.605
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.5678
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0899-8418

Abstract

Abstract : The quantiles of annual maximum wind speed (AMWS) can be estimated for different meteorological stations of interest by using at‐site frequency analysis and extreme value theory. These estimates are of immense importance for the codification of wind speed. However, the historical data of wind speed at the number of meteorological stations are sometimes unavailable and often insufficient due to the shorter length, especially in developing countries like Pakistan. The scarcity of the data increases the uncertainty of the quantiles estimates regarding policy implications. To cope with the problem, an approach of Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) is opted here. In this study, RFA of AMWS using linear‐moments (L‐moments) is carried out by considering wind speed data of nine meteorological stations of province Punjab, Pakistan. No station is found to be discordant. A single homogenous region is constituted from these nine stations using a subjective approach based on their geographical locations. Heterogeneity measures justify that these nine stations of Punjab form a single homogeneous region. Regional quantiles estimates are found through the most appropriate probability distribution among generalized normal (GNO), generalized logistic (GLO), Pearson Type 3 (P3), generalized Pareto (GPA), Weibull (WEI), log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Z ‐statistic and L‐moment ratio diagram suggest that GLO and GNO distributions are better choices than others. Robustness of both distributions is evaluated through relative bias (RB) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE). Findings indicate that overall, GLO distribution is better than GNO. Further, we also find at‐site quantiles from dimensionless quantities (regional quantiles) using the sample mean and median as scaling factors. Quantiles' estimates calculated from this study can be used in codified structural designs for policy implications. Abstract : The quantiles 'estimates of annual wind speed calculated from the probability models mentioned in this study could be used for policy implications in codifying the wind load for different codified structural designs in Pakistan to mitigate losses from heavy wind speed. A disastrous scene due to heavy wind in Pakistan (Source: Google Images).