Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes. (7th July 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ewing, D.A.; Cobbold, C.A.; Purse, B.V.; Nunn, M.A.; White, S.M.
• Is Part Of: Journal of theoretical biology. Volume 400(2016)
• Page Start: 65
• Page End: 79
• Publication Date: 2016-07-07
• Subjects: Culex pipiens -- Delay-differential equation -- Vector modelling -- Stage-structured modelling -- Climate change; Biology -- Periodicals; Biological Science Disciplines -- Periodicals; Biology -- Periodicals; Biologie -- Périodiques; Theoretische biologie; Biology; Periodicals; 571.05
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.04.008
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-5193

Abstract

Abstract: Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to changes in mosquito-borne disease is rare, and the ecological mechanisms that may underpin such changes are poorly understood. Environmental drivers, such as temperature, can have non-linear, opposing impacts on the demographic rates of different mosquito life cycle stages. As such, model frameworks that can deal with fluctuations in temperature explicitly are required to predict seasonal mosquito abundance, on which the intensity and persistence of disease transmission under different environmental scenarios depends. We present a novel, temperature-dependent, delay-differential equation model, which incorporates diapause and the differential effects of temperature on the duration and mortality of each life stage and demonstrates the sensitivity of seasonal abundance patterns to inter- and intra-annual changes in temperature. Likely changes in seasonal abundance and exposure to mosquitoes under projected changes in UK temperatures are presented, showing an increase in peak vector abundance with warming that potentially increases the risk of disease outbreaks. Abstract : Highlights: We model temperate mosquito species using delay-differential equations. Variable time delays incorporate effects of temperature on life stage duration. The effects of changing climate on mosquito seasonality are explored. Effects of seasonal temperature on abundance can be complex. An increase in mosquito abundance is expected under predicted UK warming.