A role for low-order system dynamics models in urban health policy making. (October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Newell, Barry; Siri, José
• Is Part Of: Environment international. Volume 95(2016:Oct.)
• Page Start: 93
• Page End: 97
• Publication Date: 2016-10
• Subjects: Wicked problems -- Transdisciplinary communication -- Low-order models -- Conceptual metaphor -- Powerful ideas -- Urban health policy; Environmental protection -- Periodicals; Environmental health -- Periodicals; Environmental monitoring -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Protection -- Périodiques; Hygiène du milieu -- Périodiques; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Périodiques; Environmental health; Environmental monitoring; Environmental protection; Periodicals; 333.705
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.08.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0160-4120

Abstract

Abstract: Cities are complex adaptive systems whose responses to policy initiatives emerge from feedback interactions between their parts. Urban policy makers must routinely deal with both detail and dynamic complexity, coupled with high levels of diversity, uncertainty and contingency. In such circumstances, it is difficult to generate reliable predictions of health-policy outcomes. In this paper we explore the potential for low-order system dynamics (LOSD) models to make a contribution towards meeting this challenge. By definition, LOSD models have few state variables (≤ 5), illustrate the non-linear effects caused by feedback and accumulation, and focus on endogenous dynamics generated within well-defined boundaries. We suggest that experience with LOSD models can help practitioners to develop an understanding of basic principles of system dynamics, giving them the ability to 'see with new eyes'. Because efforts to build a set of LOSD models can help a transdisciplinary group to develop a shared, coherent view of the problems that they seek to tackle, such models can also become the foundations of 'powerful ideas'. Powerful ideas are conceptual metaphors that provide the members of a policy-making group with the a priori shared context required for effective communication, the co-production of knowledge, and the collaborative development of effective public health policies. Highlights: Much of urban-health policy making deals with wicked problems. Wicked problems require transdisciplinary approaches. Transdisciplinarity requires a priori shared contexts for communication. The shared construction of LOSD models can support the development of such contexts.