Reliability analysis of hybrid multi-carrier energy systems based on entropy-based Markov model. (December 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhao, Xilin; Liu, Fei; Fu, Bo; Fang, Na
• Is Part Of: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Volume 230:Number 6(2016:Dec.)
• Page Start: 561
• Page End: 569
• Publication Date: 2016-12
• Subjects: Multi-carrier energy system -- entropy-based Markov model -- reliability -- data fusion; Reliability (Engineering) -- Mathematical models -- Periodiclals; Risk assessment -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Engineering design -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1177/1748006X16663056
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1748-006X

Abstract

Various new technologies for conversion between different forms of energy promote the appearance of hybrid multi-carrier energy system. For the purpose of optimized dispatch of multi-carrier energy and the security requirement of energy system, the reliability of this kind of energy system needs to be discussed. This article proposes a method based on entropy-based Markov model to analyze the reliability of hybrid multi-carrier energy system. First, the method to obtain the reliability of individual energy carrier is discussed. Second, the characteristic of entropy-based Markov model is analyzed. The method is shown to be an effective technique to obtain the reliability of the whole multi-carrier energy system depending on the reliability of individual energy carrier. Then, the fusion process to obtain the reliability of whole multi-carrier energy system is described. The result indicates that the reliability of the whole system is the reliability synthesized of individual energy supply and can be treated as a factor for the optimized process of multi-carrier energy dispatch. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by some examples.