Air traffic growth, energy, and the environment 2040: drivers, challenges, and opportunities for aviation. (2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Randt, Niclas P.; Jessberger, Christoph; Plötner, Kay; Becker, Axel
• Is Part Of: International journal of aviation management. Volume 2:Number 3/4(2015)
• Page Start: 144
• Page End: 166
• Publication Date: 2015
• Subjects: air traffic growth -- resource scarcity -- global climate change -- mobility demand -- commercial aviation -- scenario planning -- strategy development -- future uncertainty -- future challenges -- future scenarios -- foresight project -- aviation management -- long-term goals -- future air transport; Aeronautics, Commercial -- Management -- Periodicals; Aeronautics, Commercial -- Law and legislation -- Periodicals; 363.1247
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1755-9901

Abstract

Although many forecasts predict a stable development of commercial aviation within the upcoming decade, its further development remains uncertain. Aviation stakeholders usually develop strategies on a short-term basis, while public institutions have set ambitious long-term goals for the industry. This paper shows how scenario planning can aid in handling uncertainty in long-term strategy development. Three decisive factors are explored: the increasing scarcity of resources, the change of global climate, and the growing demand for mobility. The paper exposes the results of a recent foresight project led by the authors. Three future scenarios are examined featuring top-level statements that address the global political and economic situation, and in-detail views on the aviation sector in 2040. The intentional difference between the three scenarios eventually enables the development of robust strategies for aviation stakeholders.