Probabilistic multi-aircraft conflict detection approach for trajectory-based operation. (October 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hao, Siqi; Zhang, Yaping; Cheng, Shaowu; Liu, Ruiwei; Xing, Zhiwei
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 95(2018)
• Page Start: 698
• Page End: 712
• Publication Date: 2018-10
• Subjects: Probabilistic conflict detection -- Time geography -- Pilot intent -- Trajectory-based operation -- Brownian bridge; Transportation -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Technological innovations -- Periodicals; 388.011
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2018.08.010
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0968-090X

Abstract

Highlights: A novel conflict detection approach that considers pilot intent is proposed. Probability distribution model of aircraft position prediction is built. A novel conflict probability estimation method for multiple aircraft is addressed. Conflicts and probabilities were identified by simulating a 4-aircraft scenario. Abstract: Conflict detection (CD) is one of the key functions used to ensure air transport safety and efficiency. In trajectory-based operation (TBO), aircraft are provided with more flexibility in en route trajectory planning and more responsibility for self-separation. The high flexibility in trajectory planning enables random changes in pilot intent, thus increasing the uncertainty in trajectory prediction and CD. This study proposes a novel probabilistic CD approach for TBO in which the uncertainty of pilot intent is taken into account by quantifying the aircraft reachable domain constrained by the flight plan. First, a probabilistic model for aircraft trajectory prediction is developed using the truncated Brownian bridge method. Based on this model, a novel conflict probability estimation method is developed. Finally, the performance of the proposed probabilistic CD approach is demonstrated through an illustrative air traffic scenario.