Analysing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions in China using segmented equations and partial least squares. (2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gao, Qian; Meng, Ming; Wen, Lei; Niu, Dongxiao
• Is Part Of: International journal of global warming. Volume 7:Number 4(2015)
• Page Start: 518
• Page End: 531
• Publication Date: 2015
• Subjects: environmental Kuznets curve -- EKC -- China -- CO2 -- carbon dioxide -- carbon emissions -- segmented equation -- partial least squares -- PLS -- economic growth -- income per capita; Global warming -- Periodicals; Global warming -- Statistics -- Periodicals; Global warming -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; 363.73874
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1758-2083

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in China from 1979 to 2010. We propose a segmented equation for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The partial least squares method is used to estimate the equation parameters. The conclusions drawn are as follows: 1) China's CO2 emissions are still in the first stage of the EKC. A significant increase in income per capita is needed for China's CO2 emissions per capita to reach its peak point in the inverted U-shaped EKC; 2) the ideal equation used to simulate the relationship between China's income per capita and CO2 emissions per capita after 2010 is In(Ct ) = −13.3568 + 3.1708In(It ) − 0.1608(In(It )) 2 . This equation can help China's government set its ideal CO2 control target at a specific income per capita, at least until the income per capita reaches RMB 19, 137.2; 3) China's CO2 emissions per capita will peak some time between 2026 and 2027. After 2027, China's CO2 emissions per capita will decrease as income per capita increases.