Is the incumbent curse the incumbent's fault? Strategic behavior and negative incumbency effects in young democracies. (December 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lucardi, Adrián; Rosas, Guillermo
• Is Part Of: Electoral studies. Volume 44(2016:Dec.)
• Page Start: 66
• Page End: 75
• Publication Date: 2016-12
• Subjects: Elections -- Periodicals; Voting -- Periodicals; 324.6
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.07.005
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0261-3794

Abstract

Highlights: Studies based on regression discontinuity designs detect an "incumbent curse" in young democracies. We note that RD studies depend on the analysis of close elections, which induce players to strategically in ways that undermine potential incumbency advantages. Data from Mexico shows an incumbency curse in municipal elections but not in elections for national legislators. Municipal data show that the vote share of second-loser parties drops drastically after a close election and that the magnitude of the curse varies in states governed by copartisan governors. Failure to account for these mechanisms risks exaggerating the size of the incumbent curse.