Distinguishing territorial structure from electoral adventurism: The distinct sources of static and dynamic nationalization. (December 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mustillo, Thomas; Jung, Yoo Sun
• Is Part Of: Electoral studies. Volume 44(2016:Dec.)
• Page Start: 341
• Page End: 350
• Publication Date: 2016-12
• Subjects: Static nationalization -- Dynamic nationalization -- Political parties -- The normal vote -- Electoral volatility -- Ecuador -- Uruguay; Elections -- Periodicals; Voting -- Periodicals; 324.6
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.09.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0261-3794

Abstract

Abstract: Estimates of static nationalization do not always reflect stark qualitative differences between parties. We use a research design oriented around a comparison of sharply different parties—the unstable Democratic Left in Ecuador and the stable Broad Front in Uruguay—to develop the distinctiveness of static and dynamic nationalization. Snapshot measures that only consider a single election suggest that both parties are poorly statically nationalized; but we show that the former case is highly statically nationalized, and that the observed territorial differences arise because it is poorly dynamically nationalized. We adopt the linear mixed modeling approach to reduce the bias in extant estimators. The approach is also informative about the sources of variance in a party's territorial support: relatively stable district attributes account for static nationalization, while features unique to the electoral cycle account for dynamic nationalization. Substantively, our study alters conclusions about parties operating in highly unstable electoral contexts. Highlights: Static nationalization concerns the heterogeneity in territorial support arising from relatively stable district differences. Dynamic nationalization concerns the heterogeneity in territorial support arising from dissimilar swings between elections. Snapshot (single election) estimates of nationalization conflate static nationalization and dynamic nationalization. The Democratic Left in Ecuador is relatively highly statically nationalized and poorly dynamically nationalized. The Broad Front in Uruguay is poorly statically nationalized and highly dynamically nationalized. Linear mixed models of electoral variability reduce bias because they decompose total variability into its constituent parts.