European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change. Issue 5 (5th July 2018)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change. Issue 5 (5th July 2018)
- Main Title:
- European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change
- Authors:
- Haeuser, Emily
Dawson, Wayne
Thuiller, Wilfried
Dullinger, Stefan
Block, Svenja
Bossdorf, Oliver
Carboni, Marta
Conti, Luisa
Dullinger, Iwona
Essl, Franz
Klonner, Günther
Moser, Dietmar
Münkemüller, Tamara
Parepa, Madalin
Talluto, Matthew V.
Kreft, Holger
Pergl, Jan
Pyšek, Petr
Weigelt, Patrick
Winter, Marten
Hermy, Martin
Van der Veken, Sebastiaan
Roquet, Cristina
van Kleunen, Mark - Editors:
- Zenni, Rafael
- Abstract:
- Abstract: Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2, 073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1, 583 species not yet naturalised in Europe. We found that non‐European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. Policy implications . Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. ThisAbstract: Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2, 073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1, 583 species not yet naturalised in Europe. We found that non‐European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. Policy implications . Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt. … (more)
- Is Part Of:
- Journal of applied ecology. Volume 55:Issue 5(2018)
- Journal:
- Journal of applied ecology
- Issue:
- Volume 55:Issue 5(2018)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 55, Issue 5 (2018)
- Year:
- 2018
- Volume:
- 55
- Issue:
- 5
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2018-0055-0005-0000
- Page Start:
- 2386
- Page End:
- 2395
- Publication Date:
- 2018-07-05
- Subjects:
- biological invasions -- climatic suitability -- garden plants -- invasion modelling -- invasive plants -- naturalisation success -- propagule pressure -- risk assessment
Agriculture -- Periodicals
Biology, Economic -- Periodicals
Agricultural ecology -- Periodicals
Applied ecology -- Periodicals
577 - Journal URLs:
- http://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2664/ ↗
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ ↗
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/member/institutions/issuelist.asp?journal=jpe ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1111/1365-2664.13197 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 0021-8901
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - 4942.500000
British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 7300.xml