Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality. (October 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rougoor, Ward; van Marrewijk, Charles
• Is Part Of: World development. Volume 74(2015)
• Page Start: 220
• Page End: 232
• Publication Date: 2015-10
• Subjects: income inequality -- Gini coefficient -- age distribution -- population -- world distribution of income -- poverty; Economic history -- 1990- -- Periodicals; Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Periodicals; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.05.013
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0305-750X

Abstract

Highlights: We analyze future global income inequality trends up to 2050. Using the Gini coefficient global income inequality will start to rise after 2027. Based on other inequality measures the rise will start before that. Our analysis is robust to alternative growth scenarios. High population and low economic growth in Africa are drivers of this development. Summary: Global income inequality has been declining for several decades. We argue that global income inequality will reach its lowest level around 2027 and then will rise again. This development is the result of both economic and demographic forces. By combining economic projections with demographic developments and by using GDP per worker instead of GDP per capita in projecting income levels we emphasize the role of demographics in income inequality. Especially in the long run (after 2030), differences in population growth and population structure between countries in different stages of development are shown to increase global income inequality.