Drawing the line on coastline recession risk. (March 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Jongejan, Ruben; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; Wainwright, David; Callaghan, David P.; Reyns, Johan
• Is Part Of: Ocean & coastal management. Volume 122(2016)
• Page Start: 87
• Page End: 94
• Publication Date: 2016-03
• Subjects: Coastal risk -- Quantitative risk analysis -- Risk management -- Optimization -- Risk decision making; Marine resources -- Management -- Periodicals; Coastal zone management -- Periodicals; Coastal ecology -- Periodicals; Ressources marines -- Périodiques; Littoral -- Aménagement -- Périodiques; Écologie littorale -- Périodiques; Coastal ecology; Coastal zone management; Marine resources -- Management; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 551.46
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.01.006
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0964-5691

Abstract

Abstract: Climate change and the growth of coastal communities will significantly increase the socio-economic risks associated with coastline recession (i.e. the net long term landward movement of the coastline). Coastal setback lines are a commonly adopted management/planning tool to mitigate these risks. While it is widely recognized that planning decisions should be risk-informed, setback lines are presently determined using deterministic methods that cannot easily be related to considerations regarding the tolerability of risks. Here, we present a model for quantifying the risks posed by coastline recession and show how it can be used for deriving economically optimal setback lines. A demonstration at Narrabeen beach, Sydney, Australia illustrates that the proposed risk-informed approach to coastal zone management can significantly improve the transparency and efficiency of land-use planning decisions. Highlights: A risk-informed approach to land-use planning in coastal zones is proposed. A method for quantifying the risk of coastline recession is presented. A procedure for deriving economically optimal setback lines is presented. The approach is demonstrated at Narrabeen beach, Sydney, Australia.