Epidemiology and ARIMA model of positive-rate of influenza viruses among children in Wuhan, China: A nine-year retrospective study. (September 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: He, Zhirui; Tao, Hongbing
• Is Part Of: International journal of infectious diseases. Volume 74(2018)
• Page Start: 61
• Page End: 70
• Publication Date: 2018-09
• Subjects: Influenza virus -- Children -- Time series analysis -- ARIMA model; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Communicable Diseases -- Periodicals; Communicable diseases; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2018.07.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1201-9712

Abstract

Highlights: This paper describes the epidemiology of influenza viruses among children in Wuhan, China during nine influenza seasons (2007–2015) and predicts the positive rate of different types of influenza virus in the future. In contrast to previous research at home and abroad, this paper is the first study that explores the application of time series analysis using the positive rate of influenza virus in children to predict the future incidence. The ARIMA model is a good instrument that forecasts the positive rate of different types of influenza virus. The wide use of influenza vaccines, especially for influenza B(Yamagata) and B(Victoria), can potentially reduce the effects of influenza on the children of China. Abstract: Objective: Influenza is a common childhood disease and protecting children by predicting the positive rate of influenza virus is important as vaccines are not routinely administered in China. Our study aims to describe the epidemiology of influenza viruses among children in Wuhan, China during the past nine influenza seasons (2007–2015) and to predict the positive rate of different types of influenza virus in the future. Methods: During the last nine influenza seasons (2007–2015), a total of 10, 232 nasopharyngeal swabs collected from pediatric outpatients (age <15 years) with influenza-like illness (ILI) infections in two sentinel children's hospitals were examined for influenza A and B by real-time one step RT-PCR. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to fit the time series and to predict the future (first half of 2016) positive rates of different types of influenza virus. Results: A total of 1, 341 specimens were positive for influenza A and 490 for influenza B. The majority of infected patients were 1–11 years old (87.7%). The ARIMA model could effectively predict the positive rate of influenza virus in a short time. ARIMA(0, 0, 11), SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(0, 1, 1)12, ARIMA(0, 0, 1) and SARIMA(0, 0, 1)(1, 0, 1)12 were suitable for B(Victoria), B(Yamagata), A(H1N1)pdm09, and A(H3N2), respectively. Conclusion: Additional policies must be formulated to prevent and control influenza. The wide use of influenza vaccines, especially for influenza B, especially for influenza B(Yamagata) and B(Victoria), can potentially reduce the effects of influenza on children of China.