A better project performance prediction model using fuzzy time series and data envelopment analysis. Issue 10 (1st October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Salari, Mostafa; Khamooshi, Homayoun
• Is Part Of: Journal of the Operational Research Society. Volume 67:Issue 10(2016)
• Page Start: 1274
• Page End: 1287
• Publication Date: 2016-10-01
• Subjects: earned value management -- cost and schedule performance index -- fuzzy time series -- forecasting -- performance management -- data envelopment analysis; Operations research -- Periodicals; 658.4034
• DOI: 10.1057/jors.2016.20
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0160-5682

Abstract

Abstract: Earned value management (EVM) is a critical project management methodology that evaluates and predicts project performance from cost and schedule perspectives. The novel theoretical framework presented in this paper estimates future performance of a project based on the past performance data. The model benefits from a fuzzy time series forecasting model in the estimation process. Furthermore, fuzzy-based estimation is developed using linguistic terms to interpret different possible conditions of projects. Eventually, data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the superior model for forecasting of project performance. Multiple illustrative cases and simulated data have been used for comparative analysis and to illustrate the applicability of theoretical model to real situations. Contrary to EVM-based approach, which assumes the future performance is the same as the past, the proposed model can greatly assist project managers in more realistically assessing prospective performance of projects and thereby taking necessary and on-time appropriate actions.