A Multivariate Model for Analyzing Crime Scene Information: Predicting Stranger, Solo Offender, and Money-Oriented Motive of Japanese Homicides. (November 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fujita, Goro; Watanabe, Kazumi; Yokota, Kaeko; Suzuki, Mamoru; Wachi, Taeko; Otsuka, Yusuke; Kuraishi, Hiroki
• Is Part Of: Homicide studies. Volume 20:Number 4(2016:Nov.)
• Page Start: 295
• Page End: 320
• Publication Date: 2016-11
• Subjects: crime scene -- policing -- investigation -- profiling -- multivariate prediction model -- predictive validity -- rational choice -- crime specialization; Homicide -- Periodicals; 364.152
• DOI: 10.1177/1088767915613828
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1088-7679

Abstract

This study examines the validity of a statistical offender profiling technique that predicts the multi-dimensional classification of homicide offenders. Analyzing 539 Japanese homicide cases, we constructed multivariate prediction models that infer classifications defined by three dichotomous variables (stranger offender, solo offender, money-oriented motive) on the basis of crime scene information. We evaluated the validity of the models with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and found the models to have moderate accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = .73 to .82). We discussed the results from the perspective of the offender's rational choices in the crime scene and crime specialization.