Predicting the North: sovereignty and the Canadian brand in the Arctic. Issue 2 (4th May 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Paradis, Mark; Parker, Richard D.; James, Patrick
• Is Part Of: Canadian foreign policy. Volume 24:Issue 2(2018)
• Page Start: 182
• Page End: 201
• Publication Date: 2018-05-04
• Subjects: Arctic -- Canada -- foreign policy -- forecasting -- sovereignty; Canada -- Foreign relations -- Periodicals; 327.71005
• DOI: 10.1080/11926422.2018.1464485
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1192-6422

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Uncertainty sums up the Arctic of today, with significant implications for sovereignty and branding Canada. Climate change produces a level of interest in the North from a widening range of actors and confronts Canada with new challenges. The present study uses an expected utility forecasting model to assess the likely outcomes, under current conditions, across a range of substantively important issues in the Arctic. After an overview of the Arctic as an essential aspect of the Canadian brand, the work unfolds in four further stages. First, a forecasting model is introduced and linked to the present context. The second stage presents the expert-generated data used to forecast the future. Third, forecasts are produced and assessed in terms of implications for existing policy in areas ranging from search and rescue to transit of the Northwest Passage (NWP). The fourth and final stage offers conclusions about the Canadian brand in relation to the Arctic and suggests directions for future research.