A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies – the case of Germany. Issue 1 (February 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Boie, Inga; Ragwitz, Mario; Held, Anne
• Is Part Of: Energy & environment. Volume 27:Issue 1(2016)
• Page Start: 28
• Page End: 54
• Publication Date: 2016-02
• Subjects: Renewable energy -- diffusion analysis -- diffusion model -- composite indicator -- renewable energy policy; Power resources -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Energy policy -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Ressources énergétiques; Politique énergétique; Energy policy -- Environmental aspects; Power resources; Power resources -- Environmental aspects; Renewable energy sources; Periodicals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1177/0958305X16638571
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0958-305X

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.