Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans. (30th April 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.
• Is Part Of: Philosophical transactions. Volume 376:Number 2121(2018)
• Publication Date: 2018-04-30
• Subjects: risk assessment -- climate change -- adaptation -- vulnerability; Physical sciences -- Periodicals; Engineering -- Periodicals; Mathematics -- Periodicals; 500
• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0295
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-503X

Abstract

Abstract : A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.