Analysis of uncertainties in the prediction of ships' fuel consumption – from early design to operation conditions. (30th April 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tillig, Fabian; Ringsberg, Jonas W.; Mao, Wengang; Ramne, Bengt
• Is Part Of: Ships and offshore structures. Volume 13(2018)Supplement 1
• Page Start: 13
• Page End: 24
• Publication Date: 2018-04-30
• Subjects: Fuel consumption -- Monte Carlo simulation -- ship design -- ship energy efficiency -- ship operation -- uncertainty analysis; Ships -- Periodicals; Offshore structures -- Periodicals; Marine engineering -- Periodicals; Marine engineering -- Technological innovations -- Periodicals; Ocean engineering -- Periodicals; Ocean engineering -- Technological innovations -- Periodicals; 623.8
• DOI: 10.1080/17445302.2018.1425519
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1744-5302

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This investigation presents an approach towards a better understanding of achievable accuracy of fuel consumption predictions of ships and provides an example of how a thorough uncertainty analysis of prediction models can be performed. A generic ship energy systems model is used for the fuel consumption prediction of two reference ships: a RoRo ship and a tanker. The study presents how uncertainties can be categorised and handled in four different phases of a ship's life – from early design to ship operation. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out for two environmental conditions to calculate the mean and uncertainty of the fuel consumption. The results show that the uncertainty in the fuel consumption prediction in a very early phase of the design process is approximately 12%, whereas at a very late phase, it reduces to less than 4%. Finally, the simulation model is applied to a real ship during operation conditions.