Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy. Issue 81 (March 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cortignani, Raffaele; Dono, Gabriele
• Is Part Of: Environmental science & policy. Issue 81(2018)
• Page Start: 26
• Page End: 35
• Publication Date: 2018-03
• Subjects: Agricultural policy -- Climate change -- Bio-economic model -- Integrated assessment; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; Sciences de l'environnement -- Périodiques; Environmental policy; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70561
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.12.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1462-9011

Abstract

Highlights: Integrated ecologic-economic modelling at regional scale. Environmental implications of agricultural land use and land use change. Economic impact at farm-level. Abstract: The European Union (EU) has recently reformed its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and, in parallel, has completely abolished the production quotas for milk. These changes will have important consequences for the use of land, of inputs (i.e., water and chemicals) and on the economic performance of rural areas. It is of interest to evaluate the integrated impact of these modifications and of climate change (CC), since the latter could neutralize or reverse some desired effects of the former. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the abolition of milk quotas, as well as of the reform of the first pillar of CAP in two different climate scenarios (present and near future). A bio-economic model simulates the possible adaptation of various farm types in an agricultural area of Southern Italy to these changes, given the available technological options and current market conditions. The main results show that the considered policy changes have small positive impacts on economic and environmental factors of the study area. However, some farm types are more affected. CC can effectively attenuate or reverse several of those effects, especially in some farm types. These results can inform the planning of future changes to the CAP, which will have to act in the context of deeper climate alteration.